Predictions for 2025: CBN Edition - Episode 632 of the Community Broadband Bits Podcast

In this episode of the podcast, Chris and the CBN team share their insights and bold predictions for the broadband landscape in 2025. Topics include the distribution of BEAD funds, the growing role of satellite providers like Starlink and Project Kuiper, state-level preemption laws, and the future of affordability programs.

The discussion tackles key challenges such as consolidation among telecom giants, the impact of tariffs on broadband affordability, and the urgent need for smarter investments in connectivity infrastructure. The team also highlights state-level progress, like in repealing state preemption laws, and anticipates the Federal Communications Commission's actions amidst a shifting political landscape.

Join us as we explore the opportunities and obstacles shaping digital opportunity and offer forward-thinking strategies for building resilient broadband ecosystems.

This show is 42 minutes long and can be played on this page or via Apple Podcasts or the tool of your choice using this feed.

Transcript below.

We want your feedback and suggestions for the show-please e-mail us or leave a comment below.

Listen to other episodes or view all episodes in our index. See other podcasts from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance.

Thanks to Arne Huseby for the music. The song is Warm Duck Shuffle and is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license

Transcript

Christopher Mitchell (00:08):
Welcome to another episode of the Community Broadband Bits podcast. This is Christopher Mitchell at the Institute for Local Self-Reliance. I'm in St. Paul, Minnesota and I am excited because we have one of our members of our team is now in the Midwest, which is the best of all the regions of the United States. We can all agree. And [00:00:30] I'll introduce her first because we're going to go through almost the entire team being here. Jess Auer, welcome to Iowa. It's wonderful to have you close to us.

Jessica Auer (00:41):
Thanks for having me. There's snow on the ground here. It's been here for a week, more than a week.

Christopher Mitchell (00:46):
Well, up here we don't have any in Minnesota and there's none really in the forecast. It is an interesting year. I'm skating again. I'm always complaining about not ice skating, but I'm out there skating and that's nice, but there's no snow. So [00:01:00] we got Sean Gonsalves who people should be well familiar with at this point. Welcome.

Sean Gonsalves (01:06):
Alright. Hello. Happy New Year.

Christopher Mitchell (01:10):
We have for the first time on the show I think Angelina Paniagua. Welcome to the show.

Angelina Paniagua (01:15):
Thank you.

Christopher Mitchell (01:16):
Do you still have snow on the ground out there in the DC metro area?

Angelina Paniagua (01:20):
There's still snow and I also went ice skating for the first time in many years.

Christopher Mitchell (01:27):
That's awesome. And are you now able to [00:01:30] focus on work after your son is back in school finally?

Angelina Paniagua (01:34):
Absolutely.

Christopher Mitchell (01:35):
That's awesome. Christine, I hear that you up in Maine. Christine Parker, you are also cold but not snowy,

Christine Parker (01:45):
Correct? I have my desktop and foot heating pads going and hoping for snow this weekend.

Christopher Mitchell (01:52):
Excellent. Ry Marcattilio from Mankato, Minnesota checking in. How are you doing?

Ry Marcattilio (01:57):
I'm good. How are you Chris?

Christopher Mitchell (01:59):
I'm doing all right. [00:02:00] We have as an observer status from the United Nations DeAnne Cuellar, who may offer some predictions via chat that we will read into the record, but DeAnne's voice is not nearly as strong as her spirit. I mean it really never is. She has the strongest spirit ever, but it's not nearly up to the normal ratio today. Also, Jordan Pittman was going to be here and we actually teased him about it because we didn't get any predictions from him last year, but circumstances [00:02:30] have prevented him from joining us and we may insert some of his predictions later into the record to be analyzed come December. We've not drawn straws. I just picked on Sean and said that he was going first. Sean, as we look into the New Year: 2025, a quarter of the century behind us now and a much smaller fraction of the millennia behind us now will, what [00:03:00] is going to happen in 2025?

Sean Gonsalves (03:02):
Boy, so I'm reminded of, who's the guy's name? Alvin Toler, the future dude. He said something about the best way to predict a future is to create it or something like that. Yes, he did. I do not have an ability to do that. And then I'm also thinking about Niels Bohr, the great physicist prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. So with that, I'm going to make bold predictions about the future.

Christopher Mitchell (03:25):
I like it.

Sean Gonsalves (03:26):
Alright. My first is that Starlink will be among the top [00:03:30] five providers to get BEAD funds.

Christopher Mitchell (03:32):
So you're saying that they will receive more dollars than almost all the other providers? If you have a histogram of all of the money that is given out to different providers, they will be among the top five largest recipient of dollars. Right. I'm

Sean Gonsalves (03:45):
Not saying that it'll be higher than AT&T or Comcast, but yeah, I'll say it's in the top five.

Christopher Mitchell (03:52):
That's an interesting prediction because I'm going to say that I think that you're wrong, but I think you're going to be right after 2026 [00:04:00] I think if you look at, because only some of the BEAD funds will know where they're going at the end of this year, and so I think of the money that is released by the time we review this. I don't think Starlink will be in the top five. Jess,

Sean Gonsalves (04:12):
I didn't take that into a consideration.

Jessica Auer (04:14):
I just want to make a comment that of the very few states that have released their initial plan for distributing money, it's actually Amazon satellite service that is

Christopher Mitchell (04:24):
Kupier.

Jessica Auer (04:25):
Yeah, that is getting some of this funding. So Starlink might have a little bit of [00:04:30] a competitor there.

Christopher Mitchell (04:32):
Alright, well before we go to Ry, I just want to say Sean, that's a perfect start to it. So this is a great prediction to start off with. Ry, how do you react?

Ry Marcattilio (04:40):
I was just curious if Sean wanted to put some money down and say how much Starlink is going to get out of the 42 billion top five you say winners, you want to put a number on that?

Sean Gonsalves (04:53):
Yeah, I'm going to say it's going to be in the eight to 10 billion range.

Christopher Mitchell (04:58):
Oh wow, okay. Wow, that's remarkable. [00:05:00] I mean if they're in the top five and they're not number one with eight to 10 billion, it's going to be, Travis will be right about his predictions regarding,

Sean Gonsalves (05:10):
Let me revise it to say six to 8 billion.

Christopher Mitchell (05:12):
Okay. Alright. I'm going to say that by the end of it. Again, not this year necessarily, but I think you're right that I think Starlink will, I think they'll be in the seven figures. Wait, that's millions, right? So yeah, that's a hard prediction. 10 figures. [00:05:30] Christine, you have a bid.

Christine Parker (05:34):
I bid 1000.

Christopher Mitchell (05:36):
You think Starlink is not going to be nearly as much of a recipient?

Christine Parker (05:39):
No, I'm going like game show rules, just going for a

Christopher Mitchell (05:42):
Going to come in below everyone

Christine Parker (05:43):
Else. Small size, small size, even number.

Christopher Mitchell (05:47):
Alright, well I think Jess's point about Amazon is interesting. Certainly Jeff Bezos is certainly on a mission to be friendly to whoever happens to be in power, so [00:06:00] may that work out for him? We'll see. Does anyone else want to jump in with a prediction about BEAD?

Ry Marcattilio (06:06):
I've got one actually. I think we're going to start to see the wireless provider, the fixed wireless providers start to get anxious and make some noise, especially as it becomes a little clearer that they're stuck between the hard place of the LEO providers. It seems like increasingly having a chance of getting a lot of that money. And then the fiber providers and the preference by NTIA think 2025, beginning of 2026 will be the year [00:06:30] that we'll start to see the fixed wireless providers making some real noise about BEAD.

Christopher Mitchell (06:35):
Okay. Sean,

Sean Gonsalves (06:39):
Just as a little sub BEAD category prediction is that the Trump administration will take credit for millions and millions of Americans being connected to the Internet and as if they created BEAD and it will include households that were connected via the rescue plan and USDA money.

Christopher Mitchell (06:57):
Jess?

Jessica Auer (06:58):
Well I'll start by saying I think [00:07:00] that's a layup there. I mean, doesn't every politician claim every dollar that's gone out in their area? Say

Christopher Mitchell (07:08):
Even if they voted against it? It turns out

Jessica Auer (07:12):
If they have a chance of a press release, I think that they'll take it. I was going to say that I think we are going to see, I was going to put a number to it. 15 tribes receive BEAD funding. I think they're in a much better position than municipalities and we've already seen a couple come out in the first few states [00:07:30] and I think it'll trickle out that way.

Christopher Mitchell (07:33):
Do people want to go? I would say I would take the over on that for sure. I think it's a pretty conservative one. I would say 25

Ry Marcattilio (07:41):
We won't know, right? For sure by the end of 2025 what that number will be, but

Christopher Mitchell (07:45):
I would say even in this year, I think that we will see 25 tribes who it may not all be finalized but are expected to be in the process of winning awards. Good numbers, Christine.

Christine Parker (07:58):
I guess on that note I would say I [00:08:00] do think states will have most of their selection stuff wrapped up by the end of the year. They may not be doling out money, but

Christopher Mitchell (08:10):
Sorry, most states will have most of their selections wrapped up,

Christine Parker (08:13):
If not all. I'm leaning towards all

Christopher Mitchell (08:17):
States.

Christine Parker (08:18):
Yes,

Christopher Mitchell (08:19):
So all 50 states and additionally the territories will have most of their awards figured out and they'll be tinkering around the edges.

Christine Parker (08:28):
Yes,

Christopher Mitchell (08:28):
I think that would be nice. I really hope [00:08:30] that that's what happens. I think Doug Dawson's repeated reminders that lawsuits could slow a lot of this down. I really hope that doesn't happen. So yeah, it's good.

Christine Parker (08:42):
And I would say for the states that are further ahead and already gotten through that step, I would say it's kind of more general, but permitting I think for the construction phase will be a hot topic this year. Companies are actually trying to go to the build out phase [00:09:00] and learning that maybe the project area setups weren't ideal to begin with.

Christopher Mitchell (09:06):
Sure, yeah, I think that's very likely. My BEAD related prediction is that I've been on the Connect this show among other places saying that I feel like people are underweighting the possibility that the new administration just totally disregards the law and significantly changes the program. I still think that's a possibility and I think that it is more likely [00:09:30] than many people give it credit for, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario. And so my prediction is going to be that the BEAD will have a fight in a moment of scare in which there is an effort to significantly change the program, but it will not work. I think the freakout from governors and others will be sufficient to mean that BEAD will largely roll out as planned across 2025 [00:10:00] and we won't see any huge shifts. And I would say that that would include huge shifts, unexpected shifts to Starlink I might say. So I think Starlink and or Project Kuiper will get some funds, but I don't think it'll be nearly as much as we're afraid. Any reactions?

Sean Gonsalves (10:18):
Yeah. Well it reminds me of something that Blair said during our building for digital equity live stream where he suggested the possibility or at least the possibility of this argument being made. [00:10:30] I don't think he's necessarily said how likely this would be to have happened, but he did say he could imagine Elon making the argument of saying, look, just like take back all the BEAD money and I'll solve the whole rural problem, give me 6 billion, I'll solve the whole rural broadband problem and then save the whatever the other 30 odd million dollars or billion dollars. And so I wonder if there's any likelihood of something like that happen. I mean that would be a real wild thing, but [00:11:00] even I wasn't willing to make that prediction, but it is kind of lurking in the back of my mind.

Christopher Mitchell (11:06):
I mean I think ultimately this will not come down to broadband policy at all. It will come down to other issues like tax policy. The Trump administration has set a major goal of renewing tax cuts that were made during the first Trump administration. I've seen different analyses suggesting that that could take the next six months as they're wrestling over that and depending on how they are able [00:11:30] to come to different agreements and things and where the funds are, that will ultimately I think determine a lot of these things without anyone even really considering the impact on broadband. So anyway, they think that's going to be interesting to see how this all shakes out. Anything else related to BEAD?

Sean Gonsalves (11:48):
I guess this sort of falls under BEAD, although maybe it's more under the market, but was going to predict that, and this is assuming that these tariffs get imposed if the tariffs are imposed, [00:12:00] broadband prices will increase for consumers and the number of those who do not have home service will increase.

Christopher Mitchell (12:09):
Okay, so I was just looking at some numbers for the last year. Michael Render looks at, he assumes that there'll be a growth of households of about 1 million households per year and so now we're talking about a moving target, Sean, so are you saying that at the end of the year you think there will be fewer households connected or the number will be just not show [00:12:30] real growth?

Sean Gonsalves (12:31):
Now I'm thinking about it, some of these BEAD predictions I'm making sort of thinking about the length of BEAD and not really taking into account the actual timeline of when BEAD dollars essentially go out the door. But I guess what I'm trying to say is that the number today of households connected with home Internet service will decrease in the post tariff period.

Christopher Mitchell (12:55):
Does anyone want to react to that?

Sean Gonsalves (12:57):
So what I'm saying is that the [00:13:00] number of households that are, and I guess we would have to find what we agree on is sort of the official unofficial count of how many households lack home Internet service today. But that number will decrease after the tariffs are imposed because the big companies will inevitably raise prices and say it's because of the increased cost for routers and such that they've had. So

Christopher Mitchell (13:27):
This is like a triple bank shot. This isn't [00:13:30] just about the number of households, this is about the likelihood of tariffs and different impacts and things like that. That's right.

Sean Gonsalves (13:37):
I told you I'm going bold. I'm shooting predictions like Steph Curry shoots half court shots, but hopefully mine will be on that.

Christopher Mitchell (13:46):
Actually,

Sean Gonsalves (13:46):
I don't want them to be on that, but

Christopher Mitchell (13:48):
I'm just going to say that if you and I ever end up in Vegas and there's like parlay bets, my bet is constantly going to be, Sean's not going to make any money.

Sean Gonsalves (13:55):
That's a good bet.

Christopher Mitchell (13:57):
I don't think I'm going to get a great yield on it though. [00:14:00] Okay. Angelina, you spend most of your time wrangling us as our senior project manager and less time thinking about broadband type stuff. What predictions have you brought?

Angelina Paniagua (14:12):
Well, I wanted to comment on what Sean said. I think it makes a lot of sense and to me that doesn't seem very farfetched as a prediction that with tariff prices going up that it'll be harder for people and that prices will overall increase. For me, that sounded pretty accurate.

Christopher Mitchell (14:30):
[00:14:30] I guess I would say that we'll have to sort that out because it will not reach anyone else. No one else is going to be paying attention just like no one else paid attention to the last round of tariffs and what happened to soybean farmers. Jess will know all about that very soon from her neighbors, but other folks don't know as much because no one pays attention at that level of detail.

Sean Gonsalves (14:51):
Right. Well, you know what actually, I mean I think this will be more easily noticed just because it won't necessarily be that prices. [00:15:00] What happens to the broadband market in particular is that prices will go up and the price of other consumer goods will go up to the point where it will make people say, I can't afford broadband anymore.

Christopher Mitchell (15:11):
All right. I think what I would simplify that to in my mind is if inflation increases to the point at which Travis is upset about it and the federal funds rate goes up, then that would be an easy bet to figure out. Angelina, did you [00:15:30] have any bets you wanted to put forward? Not bets, but predictions you wanted to put forward?

Angelina Paniagua (15:33):
Well, I wasn't really sure about the format, so I started looking into states and I was trying to dive into them a little bit more. As you said, I, you're all the experts, so I don't claim to be able to make any sort of accurate predictions, but I was looking at Colorado and we had talked about preemption and [00:16:00] those who sort of ignore it and I was looking into how it looks like they have repealed preemption law in the past in 2023. I think they'll continue to lead the way in that and utilizing BEAD funding.

Christopher Mitchell (16:19):
Colorado is going to come out of the year looking real good.

Angelina Paniagua (16:22):
I think so Colorado, North Carolina.

Christopher Mitchell (16:26):
Oh, now we're getting into the less controversial. [00:16:30] We'll see.

Angelina Paniagua (16:32):
Yeah, I was looking at North Carolina, but yeah, that is, what are your thoughts on that one?

Christopher Mitchell (16:37):
Well I hear people are fleeing North Carolina rapidly right now, so that's where justice came from.

Angelina Paniagua (16:43):
Yeah, no, I know. Just, okay, my saving grace. I also wrote Tennessee, Tennessee, Chattanooga, they seem to also challenge those preemption laws and Michigan.

Christopher Mitchell (17:00):
[00:17:00] Yeah, Michigan's an interesting case with the strong work of Merit doing some great work there as a real leading research and education network that we work with regularly. So those are states to watch. Then we'll have to take in and keep an eye on it and see if we would consider those to be states that have made great strides by the end of the year. I think I would say that North Carolina is the least likely out of that set to be distinguishing itself and not because of a lack of good talent. They've got [00:17:30] really great folks who are trying to do good things. I just feel like the legislature run by Charter Spectrum and at and t does not want to see the state succeed in the way that many of the people charged with broadband policy would like to see the state succeed.

Sean Gonsalves (17:44):
I will just add that besides you being on a roll, Angelina, even if you're wrong about all of those, if you look at the history of predictions, you won't be more wrong than I've been in

Angelina Paniagua (17:53):
Past shows. Well thanks for that Sean, appreciate that confidence. Does

Christopher Mitchell (17:58):
Anyone have any other state-based [00:18:00] predictions? All right, Christine, do you want to lit up one of your predictions?

Christine Parker (18:09):
I guess it's kind of a follow up of what Angelina was saying in terms of the preemption law, but as a function of BEAD, I think there will be one state that will not choose to ignore their preemption rules and will make a move to reduce those barriers in an effort [00:18:30] to comply or be in compliance with BEAD instead of just quietly ignoring them or just not accepting municipal bids. So that's my kind of prediction I guess.

Christopher Mitchell (18:44):
So will that state remove their restriction do you think? Or will they just try to make it non-operative with regard to the BEAD funds?

Christine Parker (18:52):
I think they will remove it because imagining, I guess my idea or thought is that other states will kind of go that other just [00:19:00] for this program saying it's not in effect or something like that, which broadband offices themselves I don't think have the power to do that, but I don't know what else they have the option to do in that case. So I think the quiet ignoring it is more likely to happen

Christopher Mitchell (19:23):
Happen. Power is a funny thing. I mean who gave a bunch of ragtag different folks from different occupations, [00:19:30] the right to declare independence from England in 1776? They just said they had the power and they did it and it worked. So sometimes that's how power works. Anyone have anything related to that? Jess?

Jessica Auer (19:43):
I think I'm going to have to disagree with Christine. I think if they were going to do it, they would've already done it last year and I think that so many of the states have set up their programs in such a way that munis aren't even going to be competitive. Whether they're just like you have to bid on [00:20:00] such a large geographic area or something that's just not relevant to city boundaries and I just don't think it's going to become an issue. I don't think we're seeing really any or not any, but we're seeing very few municipalities try to participate and I just don't think we're going to care enough to ask.

Sean Gonsalves (20:18):
We'll see, I wasn't going to make a preemption prediction, but since we're talking about it, first of all, kudos to Christine for probably having the first optimistic prediction so far. [00:20:30] And having said that, I'm going to say that there will be zero movement on the preemption front. The number will be the same as it is today at the end of 2025 I believe.

Christopher Mitchell (20:40):
Yeah. Alright, so we have a prediction there. I just feel like anything could in a number of these states, and we are soon to have Representative Kelly Cordem from Montana talking about a bill that he's been pushing in Montana to remove their preemption and so there are some things that are moving. [00:21:00] I'm old enough to remember when we kind of joke that Washington every year had a law to remove preemption and it never worked until it did and these things change in unpredictable ways. So anyone else want to weigh in on that? Ry, do you have one you haven't thrown out there yet?

Ry Marcattilio (21:20):
Yeah, I'm staying out of the preemption bucket this year. We'll see what happens in 2025 and I might return to it in 2026. [00:21:30] I mean there are a couple of merger deals going on right now that we're keeping an eye on and it'd be nice to say that we're going to end up on the positive side of those. So T-Mobile's trying to buy US cellular, that deal is still getting reviewed. I would say that I am not optimistic that that review will end up in a rejection of the merger and we'll see some less competition in the mobile operator space, so that's a bummer. At the same time, Disney just announced that it's trying to eat up Fubo, which obviously changes the [00:22:00] media landscape a little bit. Fubo had sued Disney for putting together a bunch of people that were going to put together a streaming service that they were going to sell the content rights theoretically, or the claim was at a lesser rate and so Fubo wouldn't be able to compete and would get pushed out of the market suddenly Fubo is going to get bought by Disney, they're going to get a bunch of cash and a huge loan in 2026 and that lawsuit has been dropped.

(22:24):
And so that's a bummer to see. I'm hopeful that that deal gets rejected and they don't get what they want.

Christopher Mitchell (22:30):
[00:22:30] So this is a subject that I thought about as well. I think that's a good prediction. Mine is one that we'll be able to argue about because I couldn't figure out how to make it very actually easy to evaluate, but I think it's going to be a big year for consolidation, particularly for T-Mobile, Verizon and AT&T. I think they're going to be buying fiber firms and bulking up that way. I guess I would say that I think AT&T will probably be the least aggressive [00:23:00] in that I think because doing more with some of the venture with BlackRock, that open access thing that we're still trying to puzzle through. But I do think this is going to be a big year for consolidation. My intuitive sense is that we'll actually end up with less competition than we have, so more homes will be passed with more fiber, but I think with consolidation we may actually see that it's sort of consolidated [00:23:30] back. I don't really know how we would measure that.

Ry Marcattilio (23:33):
I think certainly we'll see wireline consolidation this year among the big fiber providers eating up the smaller ones. I'm curious if you think we're going to see any of the small to medium sized cable providers get snatched up in the way because obviously it makes sense for the fiber providers to get eaten up and that footprint added or whatever, but it's a whole different animal, right, to buy a cable provider and then you've got to upgrade that footprint or merge it with your current network operations [00:24:00] and so it seems less likely to me at the same time some of these sub 5 million subscriber or sub 5 million passing cable providers seem ripe for the taking.

Christopher Mitchell (24:08):
Yeah, I guess I feel like that seems reasonable to me. I'm not nearly well versed enough to be able to share anything more insightful than you have. Sean,

Sean Gonsalves (24:18):
I think you guys are both making good predictions about the mergers and the consolidations. I wouldn't say that they're bold just given, but they're still I think worth talking about stipulated, right, and I think the thing that'll put [00:24:30] Disney can easily get approval for this, we'll put 'em over the top is just to promise to stop being so woke and promise to never make a version of Snow White that's a person of color and they're in there.

Christopher Mitchell (24:44):
Alright, so Sean, I'm have a prediction related to this, which is that Sean is not going to get less spicy. Anything else with mergers and consolidation? Alright, I have one related to the Federal Communications Commission and [00:25:00] regulation. I've got two of those and one is that again, it's going to be a fun one to argue about. The FCC will not do anything that actually results in more competition for Internet access among businesses or households, small businesses and households. I don't think there are any of the actions they take. There's no plausible argument that it's really going to result in more competition, although they'll talk about it constantly.

Christine Parker (25:26):
It feels like a straw man.

Christopher Mitchell (25:28):
Yeah, I think you're right

Ry Marcattilio (25:29):
Right Christine. [00:25:30] I think the only area you might be a little bit wrong there, and it's going to be such small numbers that it won't matter in the grand scheme of things is on spectrum. There's a possibility that they make a move on spectrum that allows smaller providers to do some interesting things, but on the whole nationwide the aggregate numbers will trend towards less competition.

Christopher Mitchell (25:51):
Any other thoughts on regulation predictions?

Sean Gonsalves (25:53):
No, not regulation predictions, but I do have a FCC spectrum prediction.

Christopher Mitchell (25:58):
Okay.

Sean Gonsalves (25:59):
Which is that [00:26:00] they will regain their authority to do an auction and there will be another spectrum auction to in air quote, help pay for the tax cuts.

Christopher Mitchell (26:10):
All right. Blair Levin actually addresses this in the show that you all have not heard yet, but we will have aired before this airs and I believe he suggested that we're likely not to see any major auctions, but I would say that Sean would still be right if, and [00:26:30] I don't know if this is possible, if they include future forecast revenues for an auction that hasn't happened yet. So I think could certainly be right on the air. I mean where this gets us and our concerns I think is that we strongly believe in using Spectrum to promote more competition and more opportunity through sharing spectrum and making it more of a commons and unlicensed [00:27:00] and lightly licensed and that sort of a thing. Whereas the best way to try to maximize revenues for the treasury is to make the spectrum more exclusive where you would get higher bids for it.

(27:11):
So I think that's certainly the preference of Ted Cruz among others who will be having considerable sway over this. So we'll see how those things go, but we would really like to see more sharing and I would say that especially for our work in Indian country, [00:27:30] the ability to access some of the spectrum that is not being used in those areas and is not allowed to be used by local groups to try to build networks continues to be just deeply frustrating and actually seems to be contrary to law and treaties that were signed with them in which the tribes are expected to be able to manage natural resources, which seems to include spectrum, a worthy fight that I don't think the Supreme Court will wangle with in 2025, [00:28:00] but is an important issue for upon millions of people. My other thing for the Federal Communications Commission is, and this is one where I don't know, you can roast me on it, but I feel like right now as we're recording this, we know of at least five people who have died.

(28:18):
I believe the current estimate is 2000 structures are totally destroyed in the Los Angeles area. We will see more disasters that result in cutoff communications [00:28:30] and the Federal Communications Commission will not take any meaningful steps to deal with the increased number or damage done by these disasters. We have an atmosphere that has more water in it that allows these storms to do far more damage. As Jess experienced in Asheville, as we have seen in many places, the Federal Communications Commission absolutely should be figuring this out. I think the one thing that will make a big difference over 2025 is [00:29:00] thanks to the low earth orbit satellites and Elon Musk perhaps, I dunno how much credit to give him the ability to make phone calls over satellites and text over satellites will be very helpful as that rolls out. But still, I think the Federal Communications Commission will not take meaningful steps to address the increased frequency or just a horrific power of upcoming disasters.

Sean Gonsalves (29:27):
Can I just make a quick bonus prediction on the FCC [00:29:30] front because I'm trying to pat out my numbers to possibly get one right, which is that Jessica Rosen war so will not be getting any awards for her bold leadership at the FCC.

Christopher Mitchell (29:40):
I don't know why you got to go poke in the bear there. She's off the commission actually probably even before this airs. But I guess I would say that in the spirit of that, I don't think there will be a reckoning among the Democrats as to just what a failure, the Biden [00:30:00] Federal Communications Commission was the number of missed opportunities and that sort of a thing. So I don't think anyone will be really reckoning with that in any kind of public way. I think we'll just sweep it under the rug and pretend like it was great. Not all of us. Any other FCC predictions? Jess, what do you got still in your canon?

Jessica Auer (30:21):
I think that Congress is going to restore spectrum auction authority now that the FCC will be Republican led. But I was going to say that I think [00:30:30] after the Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal about New York's affordability law, I think there are going to be several states that step in and start passing something like this and I think it's going to happen at the state level in part because I think they're wrestling in BEAD with that low cost plan and it's just going to be actually a nightmare to try to regulate only BEAD locations with. I think they're just going to say, Hey, let's pass a low cost requirement, an affordability requirement, maybe I'd say five states.

Christopher Mitchell (31:00):
[00:31:00] Everyone pick the number of states that will create a low cost plan. So Jess, you got out there first with five. I will volunteer to go last. The worst position as you all pick other numbers, how many states will come up with a low cost plan?

Christine Parker (31:15):
Seven.

Christopher Mitchell (31:17):
Christine. Seven.

Sean Gonsalves (31:19):
DeAnne is sending in through Morse code. She's saying two.

Ry Marcattilio (31:23):
I'm going to say one. One

Sean Gonsalves (31:25):
I'm with Ry one, but I'll go one better than Ry. So if it ends up being one, this is [00:31:30] what's going to be the separator. I'm going to tell you the state it's going to be

Ry Marcattilio (31:33):
Okay. You can't say California.

Sean Gonsalves (31:35):
Yeah. Yes, California one.

Ry Marcattilio (31:37):
California. You see how I jumped ahead of you there, Sean? And staked out that ground,

Christopher Mitchell (31:43):
Right? Right. You should scoop up Washington real quick.

Ry Marcattilio (31:45):
Washington's a good one too. That's the other one I was thinking of. I'm not going to take that position, Sean. If we tie you can have it for California, but I don't want to say the state. Angelina.

Angelina Paniagua (31:54):
I was going to say lucky seven, but since Christine said that, I'll say eight.

Christopher Mitchell (31:58):
Alright. [00:32:00] Jordan just came into my brain. He said 45. The guy's really ambitious. That's remarkable.

Ry Marcattilio (32:05):
That number. That sounds like Jordan a lot, although he says 45 for a lot of things. Actually I don't know.

Christopher Mitchell (32:10):
We're going to put 'em down for 45.

Sean Gonsalves (32:13):
I think he was referring to the number that Michael Jordan or when he came back after retirement, but

Christopher Mitchell (32:22):
I'm going to go with nine. I feel like it's going to catch on particularly after the net neutrality ruling. I think it's going to be interesting [00:32:30] as people reckon with not just waiting for a Democratic administration to come back. Reclassify Internet access as Title II. It is now title one until Congress acts I think, or unless we have a circuit split and the Supreme Court weighs in on it, which almost certainly will weigh in the way that I believe the Sixth Circuit just did right. What that means is that actually, I mean I think there's a strong argument that universal service funds cannot [00:33:00] go to broadband service. So only alone. Right now, I'm not a lawyer sometimes I like to prove that very clearly to other lawyers, but I think what we'll see is that states feel emboldened and not only that, they feel responsible with no sense that the federal government will be looking out for the little guy and we'll see more states embolden to create programs. And I will go further to say I will probably be upset with some of those programs not [00:33:30] being as well written as the New York program, which I think takes into reality the challenges of small rural providers and things like that. So any other reactions to the low cost plans and our thoughts on it?

Christine Parker (33:43):
It's kind of an additional prediction. Since ACP has not been renewed, I am expecting that we're going to see an uptick in use of lifeline. There was quite a plunge of its use for broadband service during ACP [00:34:00] and I think we're going to see that ramp back up this year.

Christopher Mitchell (34:03):
Yeah, that seems likely to me too. It'll be interesting to see if it changes. I can't imagine this Federal Communications Commission being more being likely to increase the amount and so it'll remain a small amount, but it will be useful for people to go after that small amount of $9 and 25 cents on non reservation land. And then areas that are reservations I believe have access to 30 or $35 a month. Sean,

Sean Gonsalves (34:29):
I was just curious [00:34:30] if anybody had any prediction on whether or not we'll see ACP 2.0 like program either

Christopher Mitchell (34:37):
L-O-L-A-C-P-L-O-L is my answer to that. No, no, no. I mean you can definitely rub it in my face. This is the one where really if you want to take the contrary position and you're right, I think you have to take my position running the program at that point. That's how emphatic I feel about this.

Sean Gonsalves (34:54):
No, I agree with you. I was just curious if anyone thought Education Superhighway has been advocating for a [00:35:00] revamped ACP program and so it just made me think if there was any possibility of that even being proposed.

Christopher Mitchell (35:06):
Sure. I mean you go back to the sixties and say, Richard Nixon's going to create the Environmental Protection Agency, and people are like, what? So things can happen. So we'll see.

Ry Marcattilio (35:18):
I think somebody's got to take that bet on Chris that you just offered up your job in exchange for a prediction and if somebody's wrong, it doesn't cost them anything.

Christopher Mitchell (35:26):
I would be willing to beg someone to switch positions with me depending on the day.

Christine Parker (35:30):
[00:35:30] What if we had a job switcheroo for a day? I think that would be very interesting.

Christopher Mitchell (35:36):
Yeah, just say this, you have to respond to my emails if you come in because what

Sean Gonsalves (35:45):
DeAnne is chiming in with a few points.

Christopher Mitchell (35:48):
Yeah, she's saying that she thinks that we'll see, she doesn't think we'll see a new ACP, but we'll see a debt retirement bill concepts. So I think you're saying states and the federal government perhaps, but more likely [00:36:00] states will look at some of the rules around debt retirement for those who are exposed to who might be locked out of certain provider based low-income programs because they have too much debt. That's interesting. The City of St. Paul is one and I think many others are doing this where they're actually using grant funds to pay off medical debt for families to help them get out from under because you can buy it at such a low rate, right? I mean, I don't know how many of you are familiar with this, but you rack up $10,000 [00:36:30] of medical debt and as it becomes less likely that you would be able to pay it, it's sold on secondary markets and bought down to the point at which you can basically buy a hundred or more dollars worth of debt with $1 of expenditure. And so it would be interesting to see if that would come into play with telecommunications in some ways. So that's an interesting creative one. So Christine, what do we have on yay Old mapping front.

Christine Parker (36:58):
This isn't terribly exciting, but [00:37:00] I think people will continue to complain about it.

Christopher Mitchell (37:03):
We're going to do it. We're going to do it. The cost quest has been just sandbagging and secretly they have a skunkworks project in which they will unveil a map in which there's only 10 errors and it actually becomes a Where's Waldo game of find the errors in the BDC. That's crazy, Christine. I'm really hoping we end up there.

Christine Parker (37:25):
Yeah, maybe it's a new video game like Hino map turns into a pyramid [00:37:30] scheme. I don't know.

Christopher Mitchell (37:32):
All right. So your actual prediction is

Christine Parker (37:34):
That people will just continue to complain about the map and nothing will actually really change with it. It will remain as it is. And in addition, we have all these different state maps as well that are newer versions, different versions of the FCC map and there's going to be a lot of confusion about what's the source of truth now moving forward.

Christopher Mitchell (37:58):
Well, let me ask you this. I think [00:38:00] it's good based on the knowledge that you have, and I think Jess, I'd also be curious about your take on this. We are expecting at some point some states will start to just not maintain their maps. Will we start to see that this year?

Christine Parker (38:13):
That's a good question. I would say for less than five states, yes.

Christopher Mitchell (38:17):
Okay. Jess,

Jessica Auer (38:19):
Do you mean there beam maps or do you mean some states? We're doing a kind of mapping project independently before BEAD.

Christopher Mitchell (38:25):
How many states will basically continue to be the best source of data [00:38:30] for availability, where they're going above and beyond what the BDC does at the federal level?

Jessica Auer (38:37):
I think only a handful of states are going to be doing any future data work with broadband.

Christopher Mitchell (38:45):
So over the course of this calendar year, do you think we'll start to see that or will it be later?

Jessica Auer (38:51):
I think that we'll see. We'll, states that weren't doing really broadband mapping beforehand, I think that they're going to finalize their data with NTIA [00:39:00] this year. Most of them still haven't done that, I think. And then they're going to distribute the money and then they're going to say, I guess we'll monitor you with this one lady in a closet or something and then they'll be done.

Christopher Mitchell (39:13):
Alright. I think my last thought on this as a hopeful quote, which is that I hope that we will see five states or more in which I wouldn't say necessarily the state will do it, but we will see some kind of aggressive action around apartment [00:39:30] buildings and MDUs to try to connect low income houses. I think Texas is doing some good work on this. We've seen it in New York and Massachusetts. And so what would qualify would not be those New York, Maryland, Massachusetts programs that already exists, but a new program in those states that has an impact would qualify. But I'm really hoping we see more people recognize the high benefit versus low cost of a focus on the poverty [00:40:00] that is in apartment buildings and trying to reconcile that. So Jordan, we missed you, but we look forward to including your more reasonable predictions that 45 is just, I don't know. I think Jordan is going to be really laughing at the end of the year when he gets that one right, but let's hand it off to Sean who came prepared to shut us down.

Sean Gonsalves (40:27):
That's right. That's what I do best. Shut it down. [00:40:30] I just wanted to wrap up by a quote by a guy who is probably about as good as it gets when it comes to predicting markets. Warren Buffet and he says predicting rain doesn't count. Building arcs does. And I think that we need to be building states and communities need to be thinking about building arcs, meaning thinking about ways to meet their connectivity challenges outside of BEAD.

Christopher Mitchell (40:54):
All right, that sounds like a good way to wrap up from us, where we want to see more [00:41:00] communities preparing for the storms ahead with some smart investments, even if they're only able to start small. You don't all have to be Chattanooga tomorrow, but we want to see Smart Investments to make your community stronger and a recognition that just waiting for Comcast or Charter or someone like them to do this is not a viable strategy for the most important utility of the next several decades. Thank you all for joining us and we look forward to evaluating [00:41:30] these in 2025. For those of us who make it through, couldn't make it too positive, could I?

Ry Marcattilio (41:39):
We have transcripts for this and other podcasts available at communitynets.org/broadbandbits. Email [email protected] with your ideas for the show. Follow Chris on Blue Sky. His handle is at Sport Shot Chris. Follow communitynets.org stories on Blue Sky, the handle is at communitynets. [00:42:00] Subscribe to this and other podcasts from ILSR, including Building Local Power, local Energy Rules, and the Composting for Community Podcast. You can access them anywhere you get your podcasts. You can catch the latest important research from all of our initiatives if you subscribe to our monthly [email protected]. While you're there, please take a moment to donate your support in any amount. Keeps us going. Thank you to Arnie Sby for the song Warm Duck Shuffle, [00:42:30] licensed through Creative Commons.

Podcast DateTime
Tue Jan 21, 2025